South African strategy and Namibian decolonisation

Paper presented at the Wits History Workshop: Structure and Experience in the Making of Apartheid, 6-10 February, 199

Analysing Namibia's transition towards democracy: historical reflections

Paper presented at the Wits History Workshop: Democracy, Popular Precedents, Practice and Culture, 13-15 July, 1994

EMPIRICAL PROCESSES FOR ESTIMATED PROJECTIONS OF MULTIVARIATE NORMAL VECTORS WITH APPLICATIONS TO E.D.F. AND CORRELATION TYPE GOODNESS OF FIT TESTS

Goodness-of-fit and correlation tests are considered for dependent univariate data that arises when multivariate data is projected to the real line with a data-suggested linear transformation. Specifically, tests for multivariate normality are investigated. Let { } i Y be a sequence of independent k-variate normal random vectors, and let 0 d be a fixed linear transform from Rk to R . For a sequence of linear transforms { ( )} 1 , , n d Y Y converging almost surely to 0 d , the weak convergence of the empirical process of the standardized projections from d to a tight Gaussian process is established. This tight Gaussian process is identical to that which arises in the univariate case where the mean and standard deviation are estimated by the sample mean and sample standard deviation (Wood, 1975). The tight Gaussian process determines the limiting null distribution of E.D.F. goodness-of-fit statistics applied to the process of the projections. A class of tests for multivariate normality, which are based on the Shapiro-Wilk statistic and the related correlation statistics applied to the dependent univariate data that arises with a data-suggested linear transformation, is also considered. The asymptotic properties for these statistics are established. In both cases, the statistics based on random linear transformations are shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the statistics using the fixed linear transformation. The statistics based on the fixed linear transformation have same critical points as the corresponding tests of univariate normality; this allows an easy implementation of these tests for multivariate normality. Of particular interest are two classes of transforms that have been previously considered for testing multivariate normality and are special cases of the projections considered here. The first transformation, originally considered by Wood (1981), is based on a symmetric decomposition of the inverse sample covariance matrix. The asymptotic properties of these transformed empirical processes were fully developed using classical results. The second class of transforms is the principal components that arise in principal component analysis. Peterson and Stromberg (1998) suggested using these transforms with the univariate Shapiro-Wilk statistic. Using these suggested projections, the limiting distribution of the E.D.F. goodness-of-fit and correlation statistics are developed

Factors influencing media use in the evacuation decision-making process during approaching cyclones in the Bahamas

Title from PDF of title page (University of Missouri--Columbia, viewed on June 11, 2012).The entire thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file; a non-technical public abstract appears in the public.pdf file.Thesis advisor: Dr. Lee WilkinsIncludes bibliographical references.M.A. University of Missouri--Columbia 2011."December 2011"A survey of Bahamians living on the island of New Providence (N = 381) explored the different factors that influence media use in the evacuation decision-making process along with investigating the different outlets used in the process. Results of the survey showed that Bahamians preferred to use state media (both television and radio), Internet sources, and television generally when making the decision to evacuate. Personal factors such as false alarm experience, threat knowledge, and perceived quality of the home had no influence on media use in the evacuation decision-making process. However the results showed that affective response (fear/worry) and information insufficiency both increased media use in the evacuation process (specifically state media). The results of the study are discussed in light of the uses and gratification paradigm along with several segments of the risk information seeking and processing model

Conflict mediation in decolonisation: Namibia's transition to independence

'In Namibia wurde ein langwieriger Konflikt erfolgreich durch einen Vermittlungsprozess gelöst, der die Möglichkeit eröffnete, dass eine faktische Kolonie durch eine international überwachte Wahl zu einem souveränen Staat werden konnte. Die Autoren des vorliegenden Beitrags betrachten das wechselseitige Verhältnis zwischen dem Vermittlungsprozess und der Dekolonisation in diesem speziellen Fall, der zwar in vielerlei Hinsicht Besonderheiten aufweist, aber dennoch einige generelle Schlussfolgerungen zulässt. Sie vermitteln die fallweise Anwendung vertrauensbildender Maßnahmen, die unterschiedlichen Methoden von Vermittlergruppen, Druck auszuüben, und wie wichtig es war, dass alle beteiligten Konfliktparteien den Verlauf als von ihnen selbst bestimmt ansehen konnten.' (Autorenreferat)'A long conflict in Namibia was resolved successfully by a mediation process that enabled a de facto colony to become a sovereign state via an internationally supervised election. This article reconsiders the relationship between conflict mediation and decolonisation in this particular case, which, while in many ways sui generis, nevertheless permits us to extract some general lessons. The authors show how case confidence-building measures were applied, how mediating agencies used different pressures, and how important it was that all the parties to the conflict 'owned' the process.' (author's abstract)

Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer Features Identified by Unsupervised Machine Learning on Optical Coherence Tomography Scans Predict Glaucoma Progression.

Purpose:To apply computational techniques to wide-angle swept-source optical coherence tomography (SS-OCT) images to identify novel, glaucoma-related structural features and improve detection of glaucoma and prediction of future glaucomatous progression. Methods:Wide-angle SS-OCT, OCT circumpapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (cpRNFL) circle scans spectral-domain (SD)-OCT, standard automated perimetry (SAP), and frequency doubling technology (FDT) visual field tests were completed every 3 months for 2 years from a cohort of 28 healthy participants (56 eyes) and 93 glaucoma participants (179 eyes). RNFL thickness maps were extracted from segmented SS-OCT images and an unsupervised machine learning approach based on principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify novel structural features. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess diagnostic accuracy of RNFL PCA for detecting glaucoma and progression compared to SAP, FDT, and cpRNFL measures. Results:The RNFL PCA features were significantly associated with mean deviation (MD) in both SAP (R2 = 0.49, P < 0.0001) and FDT visual field testing (R2 = 0.48, P < 0.0001), and with mean circumpapillary RNFL thickness (cpRNFLt) from SD-OCT (R2 = 0.58, P < 0.0001). The identified features outperformed each of these measures in detecting glaucoma with an AUC of 0.95 for RNFL PCA compared to an 0.90 for mean cpRNFLt (P = 0.09), 0.86 for SAP MD (P = 0.034), and 0.83 for FDT MD (P = 0.021). Accuracy in predicting progression was also significantly higher for RNFL PCA compared to SAP MD, FDT MD, and mean cpRNFLt (P = 0.046, P = 0.007, and P = 0.044, respectively). Conclusions:A computational approach can identify structural features that improve glaucoma detection and progression prediction

The South Africa-Angola talks, 1976-1984: a little-known cold war thread

Published versionThat South Africa invaded Angola in 1975, in an abortive attempt to prevent a Marxist government coming to power there, and that the South African Defence Force then repeatedly attacked Angola from 1978, is relatively well known. That representatives of the South African and Angolan governments met on many occasions from 1976 is a largely untold story. This article uses documentation from the archives of the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, along with other sources, to analyse these talks and the Cold War context in which they took place.Department of HE and Training approved lis